Japan–US–China Relations during the Trump Administration and the Outlook for East Asia


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continuetosupportunderlineitsproblems.Itremainsunclearwhat“America
rst”willlooklike.
Second,howwillthisisolationismaffectcircumstancesinEastAsia,
especiallyintermsofChina?Fromthebeginning,antiglobalism,problemsof
inequality,andreactionagainstregionalintegrationfoundintheWesthavenot
occurredinthesamewayinJapanandEastAsia.Asseenfromtheseexamples,
circumstancesintheWestarenotdirectlyanalogoustothoseinEastAsia.In
EastAsia,seismicchangesininternationalpoliticshavebeenunderwaysince
policytowardsChina.Theproblemliesincommunicationandmutualunderstand-
wasnotnecessarily,atrst,arejectionoftheUS.Thatisbecause,duringthe
Obamaadministration’srstterm,SouthKorea’spolicytowardsChinawas
alignedwiththatoftheUS.Nevertheless,fromtheendof2013through2014,
whenChinaestablishedtheADIZintheEastChinaSeaandbegantoadopta
rmpolicyintheSouthChinaSea,USposturetowardsChinagraduallyhardened,
toexpresscriticalviewsaboutChina.Inthiscontext,variouscountrieswelcomed
anddeepenedtheireconomictieswiththeUStobalanceagainstChina,which
takenahardlinetowardsecurityissues.Ifcountrieshadanti-USsentimentsor
didnottrusttheObamaadministration,theyinsteadusedJapantocreatea
balanceagainstChina.Thiswasoneofthereasonsbehindtherelativesuccess
ofPrimeMinisterAbe’sSoutheastAsiandiplomacy.
ForChina,SoutheastAsiaisacorepartofregionaldiplomacyandacrucial
strategicarea,prioritizedinChina’sOneBelt,OneRoadpolicy.Thatsaid,in
issuesconcerningsovereigntyandsecurity,China’santagonismtowardssome
ASEANcountrieshasbeennotable.Chinahasdevelopedmultilateraldiplomacy
withASEANcountriesregardingeconomicandregionalcooperation.However,
intermsofpoliticalandsecurity-relatedissues,itappearstohavefocusedonbilat-
eraldiplomacy.
Specically,China’srelationshipswiththePhilippinesand
Shoalandbuildmilitaryinstallationsthere.
Immediatelyafterward,thePhilip-
orUkraine,theObamaadministration’sforeignpolicywascertainlyunrealistic.
Nevertheless,inChinaandthesurroundingregions,thispolicyneverledto
combatorarmedconict,anditlimitedactiontowardmilitarizationonthearti-
cialislandsintheSouthChinaSea.Moreover,Chinahasadoptedanindependent
Second,inregardtotheMaritimeSilkRoadinitiativethatChinahasempha-
sized—establishingaroutetoDjiboutiviatheSouthChinaSeaandtheStraitof
theOneChinapolicy.ThisshowedthatconsiderationsregardingUS–Japan
relationsweretocomeafterrstestablishingthefoundationofUS–China
relations,butthisdoesnotnecessarilymeanthatthefocuswillbeonChina.
tegicdiscussioninJuly?HowdotheyfurtherplantocooperateontheNorthKorea
issue?Naturally,thesequestionswillbemajorfocalpoints.
Theauthorhasalsopublishedthefollowingessaysonrelatedtopics:
(Readersshouldrefertothesetextsincombinationwiththisessay.)“The
TrumpAdministration’sUnpredictablePolicytowardsChina—CanChina
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2535_
665405/t1452275.shtml
Abouttheauthor
ShinKawashimaistheprofessorintheDepartmentofInternationalRelations,the
GraduateSchoolofArts&Sciences,theUniversityofTokyo.Heteachesthe
historyofinternationalrelationsinEastAsiaatKomabaCampus.Hewaseducated
attheTokyoUniversityofForeignStudies(B.A.1992)andtheUniversityofTokyo
(Orientalhistory,M.A.,1992andPh.D.,2000).HetaughtatHokkaidoUniversity’s
DepartmentofPolitics,FacultyofLawduring1998–2006beforemovingtothe
UniversityofTokyoin2006.HeservedasavisitingscholaratAcademiaSinica
inTaipei(InstituteofModernHistory,1995–96),theBeijingCenterforJapanese
Studies(vicedirector,2000–2001),NationalChengchiUniversityinTaipei(depart-
mentofhistory,2005)andBeijingUniversity(departmentofhistory,2005),andwas
awardedJapanScholaratWoodrowWilsonInternationalCenterforScholars
(2009).HehasstudiedChinesediplomatichistorybasedonChinesediplomatic
archivesandrecentlystartedastudyonthehistoryofradioinEastAsia.Hisrst
,TheFormationofChineseModernDiplomacy
(NagoyaUniversityPress,
2004),wasawardedtheSuntoryAcademicPrizein2004.
EVIEW
ShinKawashima

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